Dude, who even knows.
Post with 4 notes
Even the mainstream Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tina Kotek’s ads are shit-talking predecessor Kate Brown, first openly bisexual governor in America and the lowest-polling one in the country.
Which is pretty much because Oregon is so white that the Civil Rights Movement never led to a realignment so a lot of the state Democratic Party was still on a “white working class from rural areas with extractive economies” basis that are getting restive with an state party that’s increasingly nationally-aligned in service to a Portland-based professional class that more and more didn’t even come from Oregon
Which creates the situation where I say “even the mainstream Democrat” ‘cause there’s a third party “Democrat Like The Old Times” (like Bill Clinton in Arkansas!) in this race, Betsy Johnson
Recent polling suggests she’s in 3rd, from a respectable short-of-30% down to 11%, but the defection of her constituency could leave the Republican in 1st. I have sensed a more conservative vibe from her lately, which I don’t read as “mask off” so much as appealing to Republicans as a way to license herself to Democrats as not a spoiler
Even so, Phil Knight, head of Oregon’s flagship corporation Nike, who underwrote much of her campaign, has switched to Republican Christine Drazan, as well as backing Republican state legislators to “bring balance” to the Salem statehouse, which was evenly split when I arrived merely a decade ago. Oregon has no political contribution limits, and between him and timber money it’s clear if the Dems continue their pivot away from being resource-state backslappers there’s a war chest for realignment.
Post reblogged from Kontextmaschine with 29 notes
All those fancy-themselves-saucy young leftists on Twitter like “OMG who cares about inflation, I can think of buying a house now!” gonna be surprised when they find out how increased interest rates and a few million people having the same thought to put their tens of thousands in new wealth towards buying a house do to the mechanics of inflation a/o buying a house
Do wonder how the YIMBYs whose angle is largely “make housing affordable for 30somethings with even well-paying UMC-track urban jobs!” feel.
Or the economists (they hate it). Or even the selective-college graduates who already repaid any loans (that weren’t from their parents), whose concern about its effect on their relative standing probably isn’t alleviated by all the beneficiaries grave-dancing about how they’re more thrilled if their gain comes at these copartisans’ expense.
After all that’s probably the demographic that probably corresponds best to college graduates in, say, 1974, when Michael Dukakis was elected Governor of best-educated Massachusetts and started in on winning that traditionally Republican demographic to the Republicans.
Shifting industrial development from smokestacks to the State Route 128 “Silicon Highway”, proving Democrats could work with, not against, the market, fitting in with the way hippie-back-to-the-land sensibility had evolved to yuppie rurality (John Denver, Colorado, I guess around there Vermont and Maine).
But part of that wasn’t just offering goodies, it was giving assurance that the Democrats weren’t a threat to the middle class. That’s what Willie Horton was – the Republicans saying that however appealing the Democrat economy is, electing Dukakis carried the unacceptable threat that he’d be soft on crime.
(The New Deal coalition’s memory of the Democratic Party was that they ended the Depression and gave us the Golden Age of labor aristocracy, and then by the 50s they were like “let’s break up the almost nation-within-a-nation Dixie South’s formal structures of racialized government, not go McCarthyist wild, and culturally loosen up a bit!” and they were like “yeah fair”
Then that in by the early ‘60s the Dems were like “let’s smile on this northern Negro agitation, leftist and pleasure-seeking youth upsurge!” and the traditional base was like “I dunno, could see this going wrong.” Then by the late '60s “it’s gone wrong! UNDO it!” but into the 70s the Dems just did it more.
That’s the threat.)
Meanwhile, after the '70s, stagflation, the collapse of NYC finances, bringing the money guys on board (and without industrial unions to donate out of dues, the Democratic Party qua party needed money guys to fund it) requires their sense of threat to be assuaged.
After defusing black-crime threat – not sparing the bleeding-heart-sympathetic Ricky Ray Rector from execution! – and succeeding where Dukakis failed at beating George H.W. Bush on an “it’s the economy, stupid” basis, this is why Bill Clinton was so sensitive to the bond market, why he passed a balanced budget. He was assuring them! And since, money guys and business guys are increasingly part of the Democratic coalition.
Which is to say they were realigned in. And they can be realigned right back again.
Abortion’s a cleavage Dems can probably make something of (and if that makes for a back-to-90s-coalitions-cause-breeding-kink-is-hotter-without-breeding reaction, all to the good).
I’ve mentioned that this Oregon gubernatorial election has a centrist Democrat running third-party, basically as “the good 'ol” Democrats you remember before the 2010s, attentive to the nonurban economy and regional industries" against an over-nationalized Portland party (where it’s filling with not-even-Cascadian newcomers!)“
And they’re trying to use this against her but given her tag is "Pro Choice and Pro Jobs” it’s iffy – “She might preserve our access but she won’t join with Democratic governments in Washington and California to use the west coast to save the worrrrrld!” does not feel like it’ll be that compelling if you’re not already the type to be tied into party establishments that give you Twitter talking points
Link with 73 notes
Today, as many white millennials support the Democrats as the Republicans (each 39%). Just two years ago, Democrats still had a 14% lead over Republicans among white millennials. The trends are even more pronounced among white male millennials. Today, this group favors the Republicans over the Democrats by a staggering 11%. In 2016, Democrats led white male millennials by 12%.
Post reblogged from argumate with 103 notes
EVEN DEMONS KNOWNow is the time to advocate breaking up Google into smaller units. Amazon too.
A N T I T R U S T D A T M O F O
Hey@argumate, the alt-right is catching up to you.you can reach the correct conclusion for the wrong reasons