I was in LA for the ‘07 strike, and I remember it was mentioned that the overwhelming share of membership was not currently working or likely to work again, it was people who had sold one unproduced feature script, and that actual working screenwriters a “pencils down” mandate might affect cast a minority of the votes on striking or contract acceptance. I don’t know how that stands now – I’d believe the feature market buys fewer specs, it sure never makes anything original now – but there might be something there